Is The Offense Balanced Enough?
A Preview of the 2012 New England Patriots Offense
Christopher Simoneau
August 14, 2012
I keep hearing that the run game is outdated. It’s all about the passing game; the league has changed, yada…yada…yada. I am here to say this and throw some cold water on the league not needing the run anymore- the running game still works. Now, am I going to go on a fifteen hundred word rant about ground and pound and how that is the way to go on offense. No, not in the slightest; I actually do believe, to some degree, that the pass has evolved to the point where teams can win games consistently just with a strong quarterback, pass blocking , smart wideouts, tight ends or running backs, it doesn’t matter as long as you get them the ball in space. Some teams excel at spreading the ball around through the pass, but when you peel back the layers, it is clear that teams that win championships still run the ball and use their running backs effectively.
When looking back over the last ten seasons, it is obvious that the rules in the passing game has changed the way defenses play. You simply can’t touch the receivers anymore or they are most likely going to call it, and if it is a spot foul, it can kill your defense and set up the opponent for a quick score. The Patriots have been victimized by this more than once, as we all know, so again, the effect is felt and the results have shown it with the champions over the decade. There is something that has been ignored though- these teams that win still run when they have to.
One team that stands out in memory is the 2010 Green Bay Packers. The Packers are known for their passing game, which makes sense when you have Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and the rest of that aerial attack, but that isn’t all they do. Ryan Grant was hurt, and then rookie running back James Starks, a forgotten man from that Super Bowl run, stepped up huge to help lead Green Bay to another championship. Take a look at what Green Bay did this week with the signing of Cedric Benson. He is not a player they normally pick up because of his past, but they are worried about depth and realize how crucial the running game is.
When the weather changes, and Green Bay and New England are the best examples of this huge factor, you MUST be able to run. The wind gets stronger, the receivers take longer to get warm, the ball doesn’t leave the hand as crisp, and the list goes on. It simply isn’t as easy to throw in January as it is in September. The fact has been proven time and time again. Now granted, the Super Bowl is in the Superdome in New Orleans, but if everything works out, the Patriots will have two crucial games in s frozen Foxboro, and in order to win those games, the offense mist avoid three and out series.
In the Patriots playoff losses from 2007-2012, the common theme has been simple- flood the middle of the field with defenders (when Moss was there it was double Moss and force Welker to beat everyone underneath), force Brady to have to throw downfield and get pressure up the middle. The belief is that eventually Brady will get rattled, take some sacks and even have a costly turnover. This plan works, and now it is the Patriots move to figure out how they avoid these killer pitfalls. I really don’t think I am ahead of the curve here. The Patriots know that they need to get the ball into the hands of the backs more; either through hand offs, dump offs or screens. An offense just cannot allow a defense to pin its ears back and come kill your star quarterback.
Brady isn’t Rodgers; he doesn’t have the foot speed. Brady has actually lost a bit of his “phone booth maneuverability” and when he gets pressured nowadays, it gets ugly fast. Think back to the 2009 blowout loss at home to Baltimore. Brady was abused and the Patriots were done within a quarter. The Ravens, not the Giants, was the defense that setup the blueprint on how to stop Brady in 2007(hello, Rex Ryan). The Pats barely beat the Ravens in a classic regular season primetime game, but it was clear that New England’s offensive juggernaut was brought back to earth. Other teams took notice, and the Giants used the blueprint to upset New England in the Super Bowl.
Although New England went less vertical and to a shorter passing game after the trade of Randy Moss in 2010, there were still issues with this offense. Their deep threat was eliminated and the overall speed of the receiving core was not up to par. Granted, they brought in Branch and it worked in the regular season (putting up 45 on the Jets actually was BAD for the offense in the long run), but what happened in the playoffs? Hello, again, Mr. Ryan. The Jets knew how to stop the Patriots because they saw the same offense just a month prior.
The Jets simply weren’t prepared for the change in the Patriots passing game when they came up to Foxboro that rough Monday night, but isn’t it obvious who made the right adjustments and had a better playoff game? When the Patriots go three and out, bad things happen. For some reason that I will never be able to explain, the Patriots from 2007-11 went the super-aggressive offense/passive defense route. Here is why it makes no sense; if the offense doesn’t get into rhythm, the porous defense is going to get stuck on the field. Teams have figured out that if they take the yards the Patriots give them and keep Brady off the field, you have a chance to win.
If you aren’t going to run or worry about time of possession, why not be more aggressive on defense? What is the difference in giving up a big play here or there when you know for a fact that your offense will get it back for you? The defense will make more plays because they are playing less cautious. This is exactly what Green Bay did in 2010 and is still preaching. Green Bay was 32nd on overall defense in 2011, but they accumulated sacks and turnovers and trusted that their offense would bail them out when big plays were allowed, which they did. Watching the Jets slowly walk up and down the field in January of 2011 was one of the more frustrating things I have ever watched. Why was Mark Sanchez just allowed to run around the pocket with no pressure? It was ugly, and with the Jets defense stopping the Patriots passing game, the game was over. The Patriots never tried running in that January game. I don’t care what the final was, the Jets dominated the game, and they did it with a great gameplan and the best pass defense in the NFL, which I believe they still continue to be.
Indianapolis and New Orleans are also good examples of what a strong running game can still do to compliment a great passing game. There isn’t a team in the NFL that isn’t petrified of Darren Sproles because he can run inside and outside the tackles, draws, screens and when he gets out in the flat for a check down, look out. New Orleans also has Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram to deploy as a three-headed monster that will once again put up big rushing numbers and most likely help them get back to the playoffs.
I know this is a thing of the past, but when the Colts offense was at its best, they had Edgerrin James, Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai (when healthy) and that made them impossible to defend. When the play action can be deployed with a quarterback like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees, big plays can and will happen. John Elway had a bell-cow running back in Terrell Davis (should be a HOFer) at the end of his career that extended his effectiveness and allowed the Broncos to win back to back Super Bowls. Teams winning solely with a quarterback dominating play from September to February simply won’t happen, especially when said quarterback is 35 with little to no mobility.
Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen aren’t All Pros, but with the way the Patriots have proven that they can run block for slow plodding running backs(Green Ellis-I’m looking at you) I’m quite sure that these two backs can be effective if given the chance. Ridley has shown toughness, good reads and sticks to one cut, which is effective in the Patriots zone blocking scheme. Shane Vereen was the higher pick (he was selected ahead of Demarco Murray of Dallas. Oops) but hasn’t been able to crack the lineup. He did look very good in the first preseason game against the Saints, but he had his good run in the second half against guys who will be looking for jobs soon.
Thursday night could be a good sign of things to come from a balance standpoint. The Patriots didn’t simply line up 5 wide or singleback two-tight end formation, they actually went to a traditional I-formation many times and made it a staple of every drive. They still used their 5-wide sets and will continue to be dynamic throwing the ball, which they should, but it appears that the return of Josh McDaniels equals a return to a more balanced offense. We will most likely see a true fullback on this team (Spencer Larsen, plays LB too, BB’s favorite type of player) and more motion than we have seen over the last three seasons. Teams that win the Super Bowl have a great balance of pass rush, strong quarterback play and strong clock management. I am one who firmly believes that if the Patriots can find a way to stay balanced and be able to run and keeps defenses off balance(and off Brady), they will hoist that elusive 4th Lombardi Trophy that BB and company seem so close to seizing.
***Prediction- Pats finish 1st in total offense, 1st in Passing, 6th in Rushing
-Brady will throw for 5,000 yards & Steven Ridley will run for over 1,000 yards
C.S.
****
Chris Simoneau
Follow chris_simoneau@ twitter.com
