The Red Sox will hold a press conference at 12:00 PM today to introduce their new skipper, former Blue Jays manager and Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell, to members of the Boston Media. While Farrell is an obvious upgrade from the recently relieved Bobby Valentine, the position he finds himself in isn’t exactly enviable. While it’s up to Ben Cherington and management to put the pieces together that this team requires in order to get back on top- and there’s a lot missing- it will be up to Farrell to avoid becoming the latest casualty of the train wreck that the Red Sox have become over the last two seasons.

Some are criticizing the Red Sox for passing on Brad Ausmus for a guy who hasn’t experienced a whole lot of success in his managerial career. Farrell posted an underwhelming record of 154-170 in his two years at the helm of the Toronto Blue Jays, and while Ausmus doesn’t have any managerial experience, many felt he was the perfect candidate for the vacancy left by Valentine on October 3rd. Farrell’s lack of success in the small baseball market of Toronto has people wondering how he will fare under the pressure that comes with playing and managing in Boston. But Farrell is familiar with the city of Boston and the culture that surrounds the region, as well as many of the players on the roster. He left the Red Sox as their pitching coach following the 2010 season to manage the Blue Jays. Under Farrell, the Red Sox lead the American League in strikeouts, opponents batting average, and shutouts, as well as finishing 3rd in ERA.

Many of the players on the Red Sox roster have voiced their support for the new skipper via twitter. Jon Lester tweeted out “Welcome back John!! Can’t wait to get back to work!!”. “He’s excited, I’m excited. We’re all excited.” said Second Baseman Dustin Pedroia of Farrell’s hiring. ”He has that instant respect when he walks into the room, because it’s leadership, and it’s going to be nice.”. David Ortiz didn’t sound quite as optimistic: “I don’t know if it’s fair for him to walk into this situation that we are in right now. Hopefully everything goes well and he can change things around. He’s up for the challenge and what he’s going to bring to the table. Hopefully everything goes great. I know things didn’t go the way he expected in Toronto and hopefully it works out for him here.” Ortiz said in an interview with NESN.

“Peanuts” beats out all the rest in most categories.

This is a conversation I have revisited time and time again while sitting at Fenway Park, and it has a lot more layers than you might expect.  Here are several of the factors involved in no particular order:

Alcohol - This wins hands down.  No contest; the demand for it dwarfs everything else.  But it’s only sold at your seat in a select few locations, so it’s not really involved in the debate.

Weather - On a cold night in spring or fall the frozen lemonade guy gets destroyed by the hot chocolate and chowder vendors.

Weight - That pole of cotton candy looks significantly easier to carry than the giant tray full of Diet Cokes.

Assembly - Ever watch what they have to do in order to get a hot dog in your hands?  Set down the huge metal box full of warm water (see above category Weight), grab one out with the tongs, pull a bun from the bag, put it all together in wax paper, dig up a mustard packet, etc.  You can definitely distribute a lot more packages of crackerjacks in that same amount of time.

Flair - Not only do fans like a show, but they love to be involved as well.  This gives the peanut guy who throws the bag at you from half a section away a huge competitive advantage over his peers.

Price - I’m not talking about how much the product costs, but rather the specific denomination.  This is the real wild card here; probably one of the most influential factors, and one frequently overlooked.  Having spent a long time working behind a bar, I can say without hesitation that the exact amount charged can have a huge impact on the tips you receive.  I’ve got to assume $5 even is the worst price for a vendor, routinely leading to no tip.  $4.75 probably gets you a quarter most of the time, but often only a quarter.  $4 may get you a buck sometimes, but nothing other times.  My guess is $4.25 is the best option, netting you 75 cents nearly every time.  Even if the person buys two, you probably don’t do any worse than 50 cents.

Admittedly, these are just some theories of mine.  I suppose I could interview a real life vendor and get all the answers, but wouldn’t that take the fun out of the discussion?

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“My guess is that Boston, New York, and Tampa will each finish with roughly 90-93 wins… so it definitely seems likely that everything will come down to the final days of the season.”

But as I go back and read that now I realize there is one little typo.  Hey it happens sometimes.  Beantown Banter doesn’t have much in the budget for editing, and occasionally things slip through the cracks.  In this case, the word “Boston” was mistakenly substituted for the word “Baltimore.”  Oh well.

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Similarly, the Red Sox and Yankees will also begin the year facing off in the Bronx.  This is dumb for two reasons: One, as I mentioned last year, it’s silly not to maximize the number of games that are a big deal.  And two, there is no need for baseball to ever start the season outdoors in cold weather.

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Major League Baseball has announced it’s 2013 regular season schedule, with the Red Sox headed south to face off with their fierce rivals in the Bronx on opening day April 1st. However, that date is tentative, because ESPN could move the game up to the night before, March 31st, as the official season kick off. The Red Sox will play their home opener on April 8th against the Baltimore Orioles, and will be welcoming the newest member of the American League to town when the Houston Astros visit Fenway Park on April 25th. The annual Patriots Day game will be on April 15th against the Tampa Bay Rays.

With an even number of teams in each league, inter-league play will be almost constant. The Red Sox will play back to back 2 game sets against the Phillies in late May, as well as games against the Rockies, Padres, and Diamondbacks. The most intriguing inter-league match up for the Sox in 2013 comes in late August, when they make the trip to Dodger Stadium to play against former Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford. Prior to that series, Boston heads to San Fransisco for a three game set. You can view the 2013 schedule in it’s entirety here.

Now lets take this one step further.  Oakland is also 76-59.  Three of those four teams will almost definitely make the playoffs (two via the Wild Card).  If the A’s can stay hot, Boston could decide which division rival it would like to eliminate from the postseason altogether.  For argument’s sake, let’s say that team was the Yankees.  Here’s a breakdown of the Sox last 15 games of the year: 4 in Tampa, 3 vs Baltimore, 2 vs Tampa, 3 at Baltimore, 3 at New York.  Hypothetically, what if the Red Sox headed to Yankee Stadium on October 1st in the midst of a 12 game losing streak.  There’s a very good chance a win or two in the Bronx would send New York packing for the season.

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I’m oddly intrigued by the return of a 50 year old Clemens.

I’ve pretty much been anti-Clemens since 1993, when he followed up an All-Star campaign (18-11, 2.41 ERA) with an absolute dud, going 11-14 with a 4.46 ERA.  After 9 great seasons in a Red Sox uniform (152-72, 2.80 ERA combined), he tortured us with what at best can only be described as 4 years of mediocrity (between ’93 and ’96 he was 40-39 with a 3.77 ERA) before moving on to Toronto, New York, and Houston where he pitched spectacularly for 10 more years (from 1997-2006 he was 156-67 with a 3.17 ERA).  He then went back to the Yankees for one final season to really stick it to Boston.  But for some inexplicable reason, I am fascinated by his return.  It doesn’t make any sense.  I don’t understand why.

I can’t wait to watch what he does a week from tomorrow.  And then I want it to continue.  The Houston Astros are a joke this year.  They’ve got nothing to lose; and enormous media exposure, a nationally televised game, and ticket/concession/jersey sales to gain.  Their last home game is Wednesday, September 26th against the St. Louis Cardinals.  I’d like to see Roger Clemens start it.

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Crawford and Gonzo are too good to give up on.

What if it’s just bad luck?  The Red Sox have put 25 players on the disabled list this season, the most for any MLB team since 1987.  At 60-67 they still have a run differential of +27.  By comparison the Wild Card leading Orioles (69-57) are -46 for the season.  Those numbers indicate the two teams could easily be flip flopped in the standings.  And despite all the injuries to the offense, the Sox have still managed to score the second most runs (624, Texas has 654) in the American League.  If the pitching had been just a little better, we’d be looking at whole different situation right now.

I keep hearing about the 250+ million dollars Boston will now save.  This isn’t the NBA.  Getting rid of big contracts doesn’t make you better.  I don’t imagine the Sox ownership is having any sort of financial troubles.  They can go out and sign whoever they like, regardless of what the current payroll is.

To me this trade feels like a bit of a panic move by the Red Sox, a dramatic change made to get the angry media and fans off their back (something they didn’t do last winter).  Even though I had recently given up any hope for this season, I still thought they would definitely be a contender next year.  Now I’m not so sure.

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When the Los Angeles Dodgers were awarded a waiver claim on Adrian Gonzalez on Friday afternoon, hardly anybody raised an eyebrow. We all thought it was standard procedure, gauging the trade market for Gonzo when the off season arrives. But then, Josh Beckett was claimed by the same LA Dodgers, and Gonzo was subsequently scratched from the line-up for Boston’s game against the Royals, and it became apparent that this was a part of something much more than standard procedure. 24 hours later, the two sides have agreed to a deal that will send Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto to LA in exchange for Major League first baseman James Loney, pitching prospects Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, infield prospect Ivan De Jesus and Minor League outfielder Jerry Sands. The LA Times reports that the Dodgers were originally interested only in Gonzalez, the power-hitting, gold glove first baseman who grew up in Southern California, but the Red Sox demanded that they take Beckett and Crawford with him. The Red Sox are, essentially, throwing in the towel on the 2012 season by making this deal. But more importantly, they are making a statement. Beckett has been the scapegoat for the Sox since last September’s “Chicken & Beergate” debacle. He has been the centerpiece of a tumultuous clubhouse, and he needed to go. On that front, it was the end of a culture in the Red Sox clubhouse. No longer will a sense of false entitlement be tolerated by the Red Sox organization.

But how does trading Gonzalez help the Red Sox, you might ask? Well, to be blunt, it’s probably going to hurt them this year more than it will help them. But this trade was not about improving the team in the short term. It represents the end of the Theo Epstein era. Boston has rid themselves of two of their three worst contracts on the current payroll (The third being John Lackey, who now becomes the highest paid player on the Sox roster in 2012). Something about this trade says that the Red Sox are through with bad contracts. They now have the financial flexibility to re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury after his contract expires at the end of 2012, and to go after some help in the starting rotation. Loney becomes a free agent after this year, so look for the Red Sox to seek help at first base as well. This move is exactly what the Red Sox needed, not only to clean up the clubhouse, but to show that they are still in touch with the fans. For the duration of the 2012 season, the fan base has been belittled by ownership, and taken for granted by Red Sox brass. With this deal, the Red Sox have taken a giant step in the right direction.
For the Dodgers, this trade doesn’t make a lot of sense. Yes, they got their man in Gonzalez, but was it really worth taking on an excess of 200 million dollars on the payroll? Especially when you consider the fact that nobody knows when Crawford is going to be able to play again, and not only is Beckett past his prime, he is a cancer to a clubhouse. In essence, the Dodgers have taken the core of an underachieving Red Sox team, and expect it to make them a juggernaut for the next seven years. If they couldn’t produce in Boston, they won’t in Los Angeles. The new ownership of the Dodgers is trying to make a splash by signing the biggest names possible to lure in more fans. Newsflash: You are not the Yankees.  There is only one evil empire, and they don’t wear royal blue. The fact that the Dodgers were willing to take on Beckett and Crawford just to get Gonzalez shows that this ownership group is not exactly baseball savvy. But you won’t get any complaints from the East Coast about that.

I watched that game, and I just reviewed the game log. Lester was wretched from the start, but it was also clear that the bullpen wasn’t ready to pitch 7 or 8 innings, as they’d thrown 66 pitches the night before and the team was about to face the Rangers and the Yankees over the following week.  So, Valentine was clearly going to squeeze as many innings out of Lester as he could, even if that meant victory got out of reach and Lester’s ERA continued to swell. So, after giving up 5 in the first and 4 in the second, Lester was nudged back onto the field for the third inning. And you know what? He pitched a scoreless third inning. Know what he did in the fourth? Another scoreless inning. And both innings ended with ground ball double plays—a sign that Lester had regained some control of his pitches. Were Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia mortified that Lester was still in the game through that successful fourth inning, or were they impressed that he’d turned things around and saved the bullpen from another inning of mop-up duty? I’m guessing it’s the latter. If not, they weren’t paying attention. Meanwhile, I think it was in the top of the second inning—when the Sox scored three runs to pull within two of the Jays—that Dustin Pedroia was seen having a firm chat with Lester, as if to say, ‘Hey, you need to step up and stop sulking, because we just got you back in the game. Snap out of it. We need innings from you.’

After giving up nine runs through the first two frames and then pitching two scoreless innings, Lester walked the lead-off batter in the fifth on seven pitches and gave up a home run to the next batter, which prompted Valentine to finally give him the hook. Lester went into that inning having thrown 85 pitches, and again, he’d done well in the third and fourth. So it’s not as though Valentine’s plan—to milk Lester for whatever he was worth and spare the bullpen from pitching seven innings—was insane, let alone disrespectful. Nor was it insane to ask Lester to pitch the fifth, given that he’d pitched well in the the third and fourth. And Lester could’ve had a successful fifth inning—but he didn’t. Isn’t that on him?

Pete Abraham:

It’s beyond comical that some players were offended that Valentine made Jon Lester pitch four whole innings against Toronto on July 22 when he allowed 11 runs. This just in: The Sox had 20 games in the next 21 days. They had worn out the bullpen the night before. Maybe the idea of further wearing out the bullpen so a 5-8 pitcher wouldn’t have his lousy ERA go higher wasn’t a big concern at the time.

Indeed. Does anyone think it’s the manager’s job to predict the point at which a pitcher’s poor performance turns from bad to “embarrassing”? Does the manager deserve the blame when any pitcher gives up a two-run homer in the fifth inning of any ballgame, or was this just a problem because Lester’s self confidence was in tatters and he’d given up nine runs in the first two frames?

And why were we always so eager to praise Tim Wakefield for being an “innings eater” even when he knuckler wasn’t working—for essentially being willing to get shelled to spare the bullpen—whereas when Lester stinks we’re supposed to care about his ERA and ignore the bullpen’s workload?

I’m trying to think of an analogous scenario in normal, everyday life—the life that most of us lead, at salaries that pro baseball players would laugh at—wherein employees would feel okay about turning on their boss for having the audacity to ask employees to do their job. I can’t think of anything. But it’s even more ridiculous to think of these millionaires being so protective of each others’ egos when the entire context is a game. Why not just laugh it off instead of sulking, brooding, and conspiring to get another manager fired?

Granted, perhaps Jeff Passan’s report isn’t entirely accurate. Maybe Pedroia and other players at that meeting didn’t call for Valentine’s head. And maybe the impetus for the July 27 meeting wasn’t Valentine’s handling of Jon Lester. We may never really know, as the writers of these quarterly pot-stirrers don’t give up their sources, nor has Josh Beckett or anyone else been able to ferret out the “snitches” who talk to reporters about clubhouse issues.

But seriously, when is this team going to stop whining and stop making excuses? What’s embarrassing isn’t how the manager has handled his team; it’s how this team has handled itself.

Deep thought of the day: Which would be more satisfying, this Sox club making a dramatic comeback and getting back to the World Series, or watching this club get blown up and rebuilt? I’m thinking it’s the latter.

My three-year-old would fit right in with this Red Sox team.

1. Building a contender isn’t as easy as spending a lot money. (Ask the New York Yankees.) And if it were that easy, Major League Baseball would be selling a very boring product, because three or four teams would contend for the title every year, and everyone else would suck. I’m not happy that the Sox are a .500 team, but I am glad there’s more parity in the league, and that places like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Detroit have teams they can root for. For all the talk of the Red Sox being loaded with “entitled” players, it seems a great many Sox fans feel entitled to watch a World Series contender every year.

2. I don’t understand the calls for Bobby Valentine’s head. I’ve watched far more games this season than I’d care to admit, and I can recall only a handful of boneheaded in-game moves by the manager. Valentine certainly doesn’t follow the Belichick/Francona model in terms of handling the media in this town, but of all the brouhahas he’s supposedly inspired this year, have any of them had much staying power? Virtually all of the “players don’t like him” stories have ended up looking unfounded or misplaced. For example, Buster Olney’s report of clubhouse “toxicity” seemed more to do with the coaching staff than anything going on between Bobby V and his players. And when Dustin Pedroia called out Valentine early in the season for not knowing “how things are done around here,” Pedroia hadn’t read what Bobby had said, and he admitted as much later on with obvious contrition. At worst, Valentine has seemed a little old and weird during post-game pressers, but in terms of managing this injury-plagued team, I just don’t see much to complain about. If the owners should’ve learned anything from this year, it’s that firing Tito and not getting rid of problematic players—members of the actual team—is a lousy way to go about improving a ballclub. As Pete Abraham put it so perfectly in his column today about this very subject, “The Red Sox quit on their manager last year and they fired the manager. Maybe this time they need to look at where the problem really is.”

3. Losers are inherently unlikable. Many fans have lamented that this team is unlikable in their character. I’ve tried hard to discern how that’s true—that these 25 guys are individually or collectively unlikable in specific, obvious, Carl-Everett-denying-dinosaurs ways—but all I come up with is “they lose a lot of games.” Yeah, Josh Beckett’s M.O. when in uniform is to be a curt prick, and mouth-breather John Lackey’s propensity for dickishness is well documented (albeit mysteriously denied by his teammates). Jon Lester reminds me of Roger Clemens—or a sweaty, thick-necked, snorting bull—when he’s not getting calls from the home-plate ump, but he definitely isn’t an asshole. Are we to believe that these pitchers are so omnipotent and boorish that they’ve poisoned the minds of the other players—professionals who take pride in their craft and worry deeply about their careers—to the point that those players aren’t interested in playing well? Again, I’ve watched a lot of games, I’ve studied the faces in the dugout (HD makes it so easy) just like every other viewer, and I see a group of guys who seem fond of each other and are trying to stay positive. What’s unlikable is the losing. That’s it. If the team were as bad or worse but with a roster full of Kevin Millars and Tim Wakefields, I doubt anyone would be arguing, “Yeah, they’re a last-place team, but I just love how funny and sweet those guys are! Who cares about the playoffs!” And if the team were as hopeless or depressed as the alleged toxicity could suggest, the Sox would be 20 games back instead of 10.

4. Injuries matter. Anybody out there think David Ortiz and his 1.024 OPS would not have made a difference in the last three weeks? This team has yet to field its projected starting lineup, and unless Papi’s Achilles tendon heals soon, we may not see that lineup at all this year. There’s no need to rehash the 20+ DL assignments Ben Cherington has made; this teams ranks among the most injury-plagued squads of all time, with over a thousand player-games missed this year alone. Whether these injuries are the main reason for the team’s mediocrity or just one of a dozen bad things that snowballed into an avalanche, it really doesn’t matter. The significance of the injuries is obvious, and it’s too clever by half for so many pundits to be insisting otherwise. I understand the urge to not blame the entire season on injuries, but that doesn’t mean you can just wave those injuries away. (Tony Massarotti has been especially annoying on this front.)

5. Timing is everything. When the starting pitching was terrible for the first three months, the offense kept the team afloat. Now that the pitching has improved—Clay Buchholz shining, Franklin Morales earning a starting role, Lester finding his way back to respectable—the offense is sputtering and the stellar bullpen has  faltered. The Sox have had a hard time firing on all cylinders for more than a few games—or a few innings—at a time. There is still time for this team to get hot and stay hot. The talent is there.

6. Today’s media is brutal. And that probably includes you and me. Twitter, blogs, social networks, and the evolution of traditional media sites have a) empowered everyone with a smart phone to voice their opinion, and b) demanded non-stop work from beat writers who are trying to save their livelihoods by adapting. (This is why Buster Olney tweets 18 hours a day.) Regardless of the on-field performance of the Red Sox, this town and its media are going to root out any soap operas they get whiff of—or create ones out of thin air—as long as the Sox exist and as long as it pays to gripe about them.

P.S. The Sox demolished the Rangers tonight. So there’s that…

Both Player A and Player B, whose 2012 batting stats and WAR values are shown above, are middle infielders for same major league baseball team. Given that Player B has logged more games and plate appearances than Player B, their overall production numbers are remarkably similar.

One of the players is a former Rookie of the Year, Silver Slugger, Gold Glover (twice), All-Star (thrice), and MVP. The other hasn’t been any of those things. In fact, he’s often been a utility infielder.

Can you guess which unnamed player is the former MVP? And can you guess who these really players are?

A few weeks back, after a disappointing loss to the Yankees at home heading into the All-Star break, I wrote about how the team showed no fire, or fight, at all in the first half. Well, it appears that the Red Sox are beginning to capture the hearts of their fans all over again. Since the break, the Red Sox are 5-2, winning a road series in Tampa Bay and taking three of four from the White Sox at Fenway. What’s really impressive, though, is that the Sox have been able to come from behind in a lot of those wins. They lost their biggest weapon in David Ortiz, and still haven’t missed a beat. Granted, it’s early and Ortiz still has quite a ways to go recovering from a sore Achilles Tendon. Cody Ross has become the Red Sox newest “dirt dog’, a term used by fans to describe guys like Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia. Guys who just play hard, regardless of the situation or the team that they’re playing against. Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford have been tremendous in their return to the line-up, setting the table for Adrian Gonzalez and Ross, who have done their part when it comes to cleaning the bases since Ortiz went down.

I know it’s just a small sample, and we’ve just barely begun the second half of the season, but I think it’s safe to say that this team has a heartbeat. Maybe they’re sick of all the negative stories about a toxic clubhouse and how stupid Bobby Valentine is, maybe they’re playing for pride, all I know is this team is playing their asses off. They are another quality starter away from catching not just the Angels and Tigers in the Wild Card race, but even the Yankees in the division. Now, that would be one hell of a comeback, and some may see it as unrealistic, but hey, this team is starting to catch that kind of vibe. They’re the perfect candidates for the “Us against the world” attitude. The Boston Red Sox have been written off and counted out for much of the summer, but one thing they aren’t about to do is count themselves out. This team is too damn talented to be golfing on October 4th. It won’t be easy, but if anybody can turn a summer from miserable to memorable, it’s this group.